A new poll from the opposition Kuomintang shows its New Taipei mayoral candidate Lee Si-chuan ahead of the ruling DPP's Su Chiao-hui, good news for the KMT but at odds with an earlier independent poll that put Su in front.

• Lee leads Su by about seven points, a gap the KMT says has held steady for three straight months.
• Blue and green voters have hardened behind their own sides, so the swing comes from elsewhere.
• Three-quarters of Taiwan People's Party supporters back Lee, and he also leads among independents — the main reason he is ahead.
• The age split is sharp: Lee dominates over-40s, Su leads among younger voters, and Lee has pulled ahead with women since July.
• Banqiao, Xinzhuang and Sanchong — the biggest districts, with large migrant populations — are split, and each side leads in some of them.

Outlook: Expect both camps to pour resources into those three districts as the race tightens toward election day.