Borrowing costs are climbing again, which is bad news for the government, borrowers, and anyone counting on cheap money to hold up housing and stocks.

• The 10-year Treasury yield just hit its highest level in a year and keeps pushing up.
• The Treasury signaled it would buy back large amounts of its own debt to calm the market, and yields rose anyway.
• The setup echoes 2007, when a yield spike came right before housing and stocks turned down.
• Heavy government spending is propping up the official growth numbers, so a recession may not be declared even as ordinary people feel it.
• The US is starting to look like Japan, where the government has lost control of its own bond market.

Outlook: Expect weaker sales and more strain in the second half of the year if borrowing costs stay this high.