Somali pirates have returned in force this year, and it is bad news for shipping companies, sailors, and anyone hoping the Red Sea region would calm down.

• There have been at least 15 pirate attacks around Somalia this year, the worst run since 2013, with six ships hijacked since April and still held for ransom.
• The navies and armed guards that crushed piracy the first time were wound down after the threat faded, leaving the sea lanes lightly protected.
• Somalia itself is falling apart again — a fight over elections turned into gun battles in Mogadishu, regions are pulling away from the government, and al-Shabaab is still at war in the south.
• Al-Shabaab reportedly takes a cut of pirate ransoms and has struck a deal with Yemen's Houthis, who want more chaos at sea to mask their own attacks on ships.
• The US Navy is tied up with Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, so the pirates are betting nobody has the ships or attention to stop them.

Outlook: Expect more hijackings off Somalia's northern coast and higher shipping costs, with no large international crackdown likely while the Iran conflict drags on.