The New Taipei mayoral race has turned around, with the Democratic Progressive Party's Su Chiao-hui taking a narrow lead over the Kuomintang's Lee Szu-chuan in the polls for the first time — good news for the green camp and a warning sign for the blue camp.

• The latest third-party poll puts Su Chiao-hui at 35.2% and Lee Szu-chuan at 34.7%, the first time Su has been ahead.
• The gap falls within the margin of error, but the trend is clear: Lee Szu-chuan's lead has fallen from nearly 10 percentage points in January all the way to zero.
• On the question of who is better suited to serve as mayor, Su Chiao-hui's lead has not narrowed but widened.
• More residents believe the DPP should take over the city government than support continued KMT rule, and this structural gap has held fairly steady for months.
• Blue-white coordination shows no sign of paying off: the votes freed up after Huang Kuo-chang withdrew have not shifted to Lee Szu-chuan, and Hou Yu-ih's high approval ratings have not translated into support for Lee either.

Outlook: With 90 days to go before the vote, the race remains too close to call, and the key question is whether Su Chiao-hui can hold on to this upward trajectory.