Bitcoin just closed August up sharply, and long-term momentum signals have flipped positive for the first time since 2022 — good news for buyers, though a small dip is likely first.

• August closed strongly, and monthly momentum turned up for the first time since the last bear-market bottom in 2022.
• The same setup appeared in 2018 and 2015, both times marking the low before a multi-year run higher.
• Six of eight longer-term momentum signals now point the same way, which historically means gains over the following three to six months.
• A pullback is expected early this month, but a shallow one — the kind that has happened before in months that still finished green.
• The Fed meeting mid-month is the main risk event that could decide the direction for the rest of September.

Outlook: Expect a dip in the next week or so, then a grind higher toward six figures by year end unless Bitcoin breaks down below $70,000.

## Bitcoin Levels

• **Bias:** Bullish — macro low considered in, pullbacks are for buying.
• **Buy / accumulate:** $76,000, and ideally the $74,000–$74,500 zone (mid-band at $73,822, monthly 5 EMA near $74,000).
• **Support:** $73,600 (June open), $72,400 (market-maker downside for end of September).
• **Resistance:** $81,370 (near-term option range top), $83,600 (end-of-September upside).
• **Targets:** $86,300 in one month, $95,300–$98,000 in three months, $106,000 in six months.
• **Invalidation:** Below $71,720 loses monthly momentum; a daily close below $70,000–$71,000 invalidates the whole thesis.