A US scholar warns that markets are badly unprepared for a China–Taiwan crisis, which would be bad news for investors, global trade, and the tech supply chain.

• Hal Brands of Johns Hopkins says China's first move on Taiwan would likely be customs inspections or an economic blockade, not a full invasion.
• Even a blockade would hit company operations, shipping lanes, and the chip supply chain worldwide.
• The core problem is that no one knows how to price a low-odds, huge-damage event, so markets are ignoring it.
• 2028 is flagged as an especially risky window, with elections in both Taiwan and the US.
• A Bloomberg study put the first-year cost of a US–China clash at over $10 trillion, worse than COVID or the 2008 crash.

Outlook: The world economy is drifting from tight integration toward fragmentation, so companies and investors are expected to keep spreading risk and cutting reliance on single suppliers.