Taiwan's 2026 local elections could cost one or both major party leaders their jobs, with the DPP chair facing the bigger risk.

• The DPP has a tradition that its chair quits after an election loss; the KMT does not.
• President Lai Ching-te doubles as DPP chair, so a bad night in Kaohsiung would land on him directly.
• If the KMT loses New Taipei, some in the party will push chair Cheng Li-wun to quit, but she may refuse.
• If the DPP holds Kaohsiung and the KMT holds New Taipei, Cheng likely stays even if the DPP sweeps smaller counties like Hsinchu, Taitung, Changhua, Chiayi and Yilan.

Outlook: Kaohsiung and New Taipei are the two races that will decide whether either party leader survives.