A senior Taiwanese political scholar warns that Taiwan's security could be traded away when Trump and Xi meet in late September — bad news for Taipei, good news for Beijing.

• Xi is expected to arrive with a huge purchase order that lets Trump claim a win at home before the US midterms.
• In exchange, Beijing would push Trump to back away from Taiwan — opposing independence, forcing Taipei into peace talks, signing a fourth joint communiqué, and ending US weapons sales.
• A deal like that would hand Xi the justification he needs to lock in another five-year term.
• Taiwan's politicians are consumed by their own election fight and are barely discussing the summit.
• China still faces real brakes on any move against Taiwan: internal military loyalty risks, a shaky economy, and fear of US and Japanese intervention.

Outlook: The recommended response is for Taipei to guard against Chinese influence operations and lobby the US Congress hard before the two leaders sit down.