Taiwan's opposition KMT is being warned it could lose New Taipei City, its biggest local stronghold, in the coming local elections — bad news for the party's national comeback hopes.

• Political analyst Huang Wei-han lays out two reasons the KMT's grip on New Taipei is slipping.
• New Taipei is the party's flagship city, so losing it would gut its base heading into the next round of national politics.
• Popular streamer Chen Chih-han, known as "Guanchang," is publicly attacking the blue camp for going back on its word — accusing it of acting arrogant while it is in a weak position.
• The split matters because Chen has been one of the loudest online voices on the opposition side, and his turn signals trouble holding that internet audience.

Outlook: Expect the KMT to face more pressure over its New Taipei candidate and more defections from the online commentators who once backed it.