Fed rate hike odds rising, Taiwan's central bank ready to tap the brakes

Aug 31, 2026

Higher interest rates are back on the table in both the US and Taiwan, which is bad news for borrowers and stock investors but better for savers losing money to inflation.

  • Hawkish comments from Fed chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole pushed markets to price in a possible September rate hike.
  • US inflation is still broad — over half the items in the main price index rose more than 3% over the past year — so "higher for longer" is back.
  • The August US inflation report due September 11 is the key trigger; a weak reading on cooling prices would make a September hike much more likely.
  • In Taiwan, savers are now losing money: one-year deposit rates sit below expected inflation, so real returns have turned negative.
  • Taiwan's economy is on track for double-digit growth, with sticky service prices and wages, giving the central bank room to raise without much economic risk.

Outlook: Taiwan's central bank has its foot on the brake but is waiting to see whether inflation sticks above 2% before actually pressing down.

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