A new poll puts the ruling party's candidate ahead in Taiwan's biggest mayoral race, but the opposition says the lead is a mirage — a negative read for the DPP if they believe it.

• A survey of New Taipei voters gives DPP candidate Su Chiao-hui a lead of about 5 points over KMT candidate Li Si-chuan.
• KMT councillor Ling Tao argues the sample is skewed: DPP identifiers made up a far bigger share of respondents than KMT and TPP supporters combined.
• His claim is that opposition voters hide their views on the phone while DPP supporters answer openly, a pattern he says has shown up in polls since 2022.
• Li had led since announcing in March; local commentary blames a string of image problems for the reversal over the past six months.
• The Su family's past remarks are circulating in short videos, and even bringing in former president Tsai Ing-wen to head the campaign has not fixed the damage.

Outlook: Expect both camps to fight over poll methodology as the year-end election nears, with the race close enough that turnout, not headline numbers, decides it.