Cooperation between the Taiwan People's Party and the Kuomintang in the Zhubei mayoral race has formally collapsed — bad news for both parties' prospects in the year-end elections, and an opportunity for the Democratic Progressive Party.

• TPP Chairman Huang Kuo-chang announced that the blue-white negotiations in Zhubei had broken down. The party's candidate, Chiu Chen-yuan, is determined to stay in the race to the end, and the KMT and the DPP are each fielding candidates of their own.

• Hsinchu has long been regarded as a TPP stronghold; if the party cannot even hold Zhubei, it would strike directly at its political survival.

• Kao Chia-yu predicts the collapse will spill over into "one death, five casualties," with Changhua, Chiayi City, Yilan, Hsinchu County and New Taipei all potentially flipping, and Keelung not safe either.

• The crux of the matter is that the KMT believes the TPP lacks real strength and simply wants to absorb its votes — but blue-camp supporters are not necessarily willing to vote for the white camp in return.

• The latest polls in the New Taipei mayoral race show a golden cross, with the DPP's Su Chiao-hui overtaking the KMT's Li Si-chuan in support.

Outlook: Whether the blue and white camps can each consolidate their forces at the county and city magistrate level will determine whether this breakdown is an isolated mishap in a single constituency or the beginning of a full-scale collapse.