A Bitcoin chart signal that traders treat as bullish has a coin-flip track record, which is a warning for anyone buying on the pattern alone.

• The signal has fired 39 times since 2011, and fewer than half of those led to a gain.
• The average return after the signal looks huge, close to +78%.
• That average is misleading — the typical outcome is actually a small loss.
• A handful of enormous winners drag the average up while most cases go nowhere.

Outlook: The signal alone is not a reliable buy trigger, so expect the next one to be a coin flip rather than a guaranteed run.