Taiwanese academic Fan Shih-ping has listed six structural problems that the Kuomintang (KMT) has accumulated over the decade since it lost power at the central level — bad news for the pan-blue camp, but favourable for the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) heading into the 2028 elections.

• The KMT faces a generational gap in personnel working on foreign affairs, national defence and cross-strait relations: the senior generation is close to retirement, and there is no mid-career cohort to take over.
• Well-performing city and county mayors have no opportunity to move up. Hou Yu-ih, Wang Hui-mei and Jao Ching-ling face uncertain prospects once they leave office at the end of the year, and are even unwilling to appear on stage in support of candidates from their own party.
• The DPP has taken over the KMT's former signature issue of "boosting the economy": the stock market has repeatedly hit record highs, the economic growth rate in the first two quarters of this year reached its highest level in decades, and cash handouts have been distributed to the whole population.
• Civil servants in the central government ministries used to lean blue, but seeing no prospects for promotion, they are gradually shifting towards the ruling party.
• Cheng Li-wun's pro-China line has left the KMT being treated by China as an instrument to be used, and the latest opinion polls show rising antipathy towards the party and declining favourability.

Outlook: As long as it remains ambiguous on sovereignty and cross-strait positioning, whoever represents the KMT in 2028 could repeat the defeats suffered by Eric Chu, Han Kuo-yu and Hou Yu-ih.