Russia is stepping up sabotage, drone probes, and border games across Europe, and Western intelligence now fears a direct test of NATO is close — bad news for the Baltics, Ukraine, and anyone hoping the war stays contained.

• A drone carrying explosives was found at Germany's biggest freight airport, a key NATO hub, and more sabotage attempts have surfaced in Italy, Estonia, and Bulgaria.
• Russian drones are being shot down deep inside Romanian airspace, and tunnels from Belarus have been found crossing into Lithuania and Latvia.
• The CIA director flew to Moscow to warn Russia directly against attacking a NATO country — a trip that only happens when things are urgent.
• NATO's plan for responding to a limited attack on the Baltics leaked to the German press, likely on purpose, to scare Putin off.
• The goal is probably not conquest but breaking NATO apart by grabbing something small and daring the alliance to do nothing.

Outlook: Expect more probing attacks and an edge-case provocation designed to test whether NATO's mutual-defense promise still means anything.