Waiting for a Bitcoin pullback works only half the time, and the cost of being wrong is far bigger than the reward for being right — a bad trade-off for buyers sitting in cash.

• Across 60 past setups in Bitcoin's history, the dip actually arrived 30 times — a coin flip.
• When the dip came, waiting saved about 5% on average — a modest win.
• When it didn't come, buyers had to chase the price up 23% at the median — and far more in the worst case, back in late 2013.
• The math is lopsided: small savings when you're right, a much bigger bill when you're wrong.

Outlook: Sitting in cash waiting for a cheaper entry is likely to cost more than it saves.