Washington is trying to cut Iran off from the world's money system, and whether it works is genuinely uncertain — bad for Iran either way, and risky for oil prices and anyone caught in the middle.

• The US has shifted from military strikes to an all-out squeeze on Iran's oil, banking, gold, shipping, aviation and tech, with roughly 60 targets hit at once.
• Treasury chief Scott Bessent is threatening to kick any foreign bank that moves Iranian money out of the US dollar system entirely — language no US official has used this bluntly before.
• Countries are being told to pick a side: do business with Iran or with America, not both. The UAE already suspended trade with Iran.
• China is the whole ballgame — it buys most of Iran's oil, and nobody thinks Beijing will simply comply.
• Doubters point out Iran's leaders do not care if their own people go hungry, so starving the population may not buy any concessions.

Outlook: The next two to three months will show whether banks actually fold; if the squeeze fails, pressure builds for military action again, and the Strait of Hormuz stays the wild card for oil prices.