A bullish call says TSMC could climb several times over and drag Taiwan's whole market with it — good news for holders, but it rests on the AI boom never cooling.

• Taiwan's AI chip and tech exports keep booming, and macro economist Wu Chia-lung says TSMC's long-run earnings power is far above what the local market assumes.
• Local analysts model a target near NT$5,000 a share; US money is more aggressive, working backwards from how much the big tech giants are spending on chips and landing on a far higher number.
• Converted from the US listing into local shares, that aggressive case implies a Taiwan share price of over NT$8,000 — roughly triple today's level, and still NT$5,600–6,000 even after a heavy discount.
• Because TSMC is so heavy in the index, every NT$1 move adds about 8 points to the whole market; add Foxconn, MediaTek, Quanta and the rest of the supply chain and the index clears 60,000 easily, with 130,000 the number if the tripling actually happens.
• The advice is not to sell too early: every industrial revolution runs through building the infrastructure, then commercial uses, then an overheated bubble — and this one has not reached the bubble stage yet.

Outlook: Expect continued momentum in Taiwan tech shares as long as global AI capital spending holds up, with the bubble phase — whenever it arrives — as the real risk.