A month after Taiwan stopped buying Papua New Guinea gas over a diplomatic spat, Beijing's offer to take over the orders has yet to produce a single confirmed deal — bad news for PNG, and a quiet win for Taiwan's leverage.

• Taiwan stopped buying PNG liquefied natural gas on the spot market on July 28, after Papua New Guinea shut Taiwan's office there.
• The gap is real: Taiwan had been taking about half a million tonnes every six months, worth roughly 800 million Australian dollars.
• China quickly said it would step in, calling Taiwan's move short-sighted and boasting about its huge market.
• PetroChina sent a delegation to PNG in early August and expressed strong interest — but no contract, volume, or price has been made public.
• A Washington think tank tracking Chinese activity in the Pacific put it bluntly: willingness to buy is not a contract.

Outlook: Unless China signs an actual deal soon, Papua New Guinea is left hunting for a new buyer for gas it thought was already spoken for.