A new poll in Taiwan's New Taipei City mayoral race puts the DPP's Su Chiao-hui ahead of the KMT's Li Si-chuan for the first time — a warning sign for the KMT in one of its traditional strongholds.

• Su leads Li by about 5 points, a crossover in a race the KMT was expected to win comfortably.
• Nearly half of New Taipei residents say they want a change of ruling party in the city.
• Su leads across most age groups — 30s, 40s, and over-60s — and trails only slightly among people in their 50s.
• Four deep-blue KMT districts still hold firm: Tamsui, Xizhi, Yonghe, and Xindian, where Li leads by double digits.
• Tamsui now looks like the KMT's strongest district, overtaking Yonghe.

Outlook: The race is tightening ahead of the local elections, and the KMT's age-group weakness will be hard to reverse without a shift among younger and older voters.