The race for Hsinchu County magistrate has been thrown into flux by the possible collapse of KMT-TPP cooperation over the Zhubei mayoral race — a development that hurts the KMT and helps the DPP.

• Zhubei and Zhudong together account for nearly 60 percent of the votes in Hsinchu County, so the Zhubei mayoral race moves the entire magistrate contest.
• The TPP has not fielded a magistrate candidate, and its supporters might otherwise have swung behind the KMT's Hsu Hsin-ying.
• If KMT-TPP cooperation in Zhubei falls apart, the TPP's grassroots will conclude that the KMT broke its word, and swing voters and Ko Wen-je supporters may be unwilling to vote for Hsu Hsin-ying.
• The KMT's own internal rifts have yet to heal: the primary saw a bruising fight between Hsu Hsin-ying and Deputy Magistrate Chen Chien-hsien, making reconciliation difficult.
• The DPP's Cheng Chao-fang holds the incumbency advantage as the sitting mayor of Zhubei, and a split between the KMT and the TPP would amount to handing him another gift.

Outlook: The result of the KMT-TPP negotiations in Zhubei will determine whether the Hsinchu County magistrate race reverts to a traditional blue-green showdown or becomes an opening for the DPP to turn the tables.