A quiet US intelligence visit to Russia hints at possible de-escalation, which would be good news for markets and for anyone hoping the Ukraine and Iran conflicts cool off.

• CIA Director John Ratcliffe has arrived in Moscow, with no public explanation for the trip.
• His last similar trip was to Cuba in May, right after Trump said Cuba would be squeezed next.
• After that visit, oil ships started arriving again, the tough talk stopped, and nothing happened to Cuba.
• Russia is both the other side of the Ukraine war and a main backer of Iran, so one deal could calm two conflicts.
• If tensions ease, that would be a positive push for stocks.

Outlook: Watch for a softer tone on Ukraine and Iran in the coming weeks, though this could still turn out to be false hope.