Trump's approval has fallen to the lowest level of his presidency, and Republicans heading into the midterms are now the ones exposed.

• Approval sits at 33% with 64% disapproving — territory last seen in George W. Bush's second term.
• Trump is underwater in 47 of 50 states; only West Virginia, Wyoming, and Idaho are still positive.
• The economy and inflation top voter concerns, while the Iran war barely registers.
• In Texas, weak Republican turnout over inflation and data centers has Democrat James Talarico polling ahead of Ken Paxton in districts Trump won easily.
• Trump has ordered his roughly $400 million ad operation to run on his own record rather than attack Democrats locally — a choice strategists inside his own camp opposed.

Outlook: Republican enthusiasm is sagging while Democratic turnout looks strong, setting up a chance — not the base case — of losses in states like Texas and Nebraska that normally are not in play.