Bitcoin's reputation for a bad September is overstated, which is mildly reassuring for holders bracing for a rough month.

• September's typical loss is small and only the third worst month for Bitcoin, behind August and December.
• Strip out two extreme years and September is essentially flat — a coin flip, not a crash.
• The last three Septembers were all positive, with gains in the 4% to 7% range.
• The expected path is a quiet, dull first half of the month, maybe a modest dip, then a slow grind higher.

Outlook: A boring September with a possible shallow pullback, leading into October, historically one of Bitcoin's strongest months.

## Bitcoin Levels

• **Bias:** Neutral to mildly bullish — no strong directional call for September.
• **Support:** $76,000 as the worst-case downside.
• **Targets:** Sideways-to-higher into month end, with strength expected in October.