Five years after taking Kabul, the Taliban run one of the weakest armies on earth, which is bad news for their grip on Afghanistan as enemies close in from every direction.

• Their military is a mix of rusting Soviet gear and captured American equipment they cannot get spare parts for, so vehicles are cannibalized until they die.
• They have almost no air power, no air defenses, and no real supply system, leaving Afghan skies open to Pakistan.
• They stay in power because their enemies are even weaker — rebel groups and the Islamic State fight in small bands, while the Taliban field over 100,000 fighters plus an informant network.
• Instead of building a normal army, they are buying rifles, rockets, shoulder-fired anti-aircraft weapons and cheap attack drones, doubling down on guerrilla war.
• Rogue commanders and rebel groups in the north and south are already forcing them to rush troops and helicopters to put out fires.

Outlook: The Taliban can keep winning small guerrilla fights, but their captured hardware is running out and a serious opponent would expose how little they actually have.