Trump ignored warnings before the Iran war, and now oil and food prices are paying for it

Aug 25, 2026

The Iran war has drained America's emergency oil stockpile to its lowest level since the early 1980s, and food costs are set to jump next — bad news for drivers, shoppers, and farmers.

  • Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz after the war started, choking off oil and gas shipments and sending diesel and gas prices sharply higher.
  • The US has burned through more than 100 million barrels of its emergency oil reserve, and the last of it is nearly gone.
  • Tulsi Gabbard warned before the war that Iran would close the strait, harden its government, and hit US forces — all of which happened.
  • A third of the world's nitrogen fertilizer moves through that strait, so JP Morgan now expects global food prices to climb 5% next year.
  • Trump's threat to cut countries off from the dollar for trading with Iran is unlikely to stick, since China, Russia, and others need Iranian oil and would just move to other currencies.

Outlook: With the emergency oil reserve almost empty and fertilizer supplies squeezed, expect higher gas, diesel, and food prices into next year, plus talk of US oil export limits.

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