Sanctions on Iran and its trading partners are unlikely to force a climbdown and will probably lead to more war — bad news for oil markets, gas prices, and anyone hoping for calm.

• Economic blockades and sanctions have never on their own toppled a government or won a major war since World War I — Germany, Japan, Iraq, Iran, and Russia all ended in more fighting, not surrender.
• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's "economic D-Day" plan is billed as an alternative to war but works as a step toward one, and he admitted cutting off China's banks could blow up the world financial system.
• Trump's tariffs on China were sanctions in all but name; China answered by choking off rare earths, which are needed for the chips in ordinary cars.
• Iran is now hitting tankers in the Strait of Hormuz to push gas prices up and shake US markets, aiming to damage Trump politically through the midterms.
• South Korean opinion of the US has fallen to a record low after tariffs, cancelled joint exercises, and a US aircraft carrier pulled away to the Middle East — raising the odds Seoul restarts a nuclear weapons program, as Saudi Arabia is also weighing.

Outlook: Expect more attacks on Gulf shipping, higher gas prices, and rockier markets, with nuclear hedging spreading from the Middle East to Asia.