Warnings are stacking up about higher food costs and a stretched US consumer, which is bad news for anyone already living paycheck to paycheck.

• JP Morgan sees food inflation near 5% next year as crops disappoint and shipping routes get blocked.
• The Black Sea and Kerch Strait problems are choking fertilizer supply, and less fertilizer means smaller harvests.
• The UK is telling people to stock up on food, citing climate and hostile countries.
• US debt service now costs more than the Pentagon, and a Fed official warns of an eventual reckoning.
• Consumer debt is at record highs while people expect credit card, car, and mortgage costs to rise.

Outlook: Food and borrowing costs look set to keep climbing, with gold, silver, and energy drawing money as investors look for cover.