A former US counterterrorism chief warns the Iran war and the Ukraine war are merging into one global conflict, and that Washington is stoking both — bad news for anyone hoping the US stays out.

• The Iran fight has shifted from bombs to money: sanctions, a naval blockade, and a choked-off Strait of Hormuz.
• The two wars are bleeding into each other, with Iran arming Russia and Ukraine now hitting an Iranian ship.
• The nightmare path runs through nuclear escalation — Israel first, then Putin in Ukraine.
• Sanctions keep backfiring: cutting Russia off pushed countries toward China and away from the dollar, and secondary sanctions on Iran would hurt the world economy more than Tehran.
• US troops are still parked within reach of Iranian missiles, which invites a strike that drags America back into shooting.

Outlook: Expect more economic pressure and propaganda in the near term, with a real risk that Iran hits back and pulls the US into a wider war.