Israel and Turkey are sliding from a war of words into real military friction inside Syria, and the risk of an accidental clash between two US allies is rising.

• Israeli jets bombed a Syrian air base near the Turkish border, saying Turkey was about to move troops and air defenses there; Turkey denies it and US intelligence backs Turkey.
• Turkish forces watched the jets fly north without warning and could have scrambled their own fighters, thinking they were under attack.
• The two want opposite things in Syria: Turkey wants one strong government in Damascus, Israel wants a weak, broken-up neighbor it can control.
• The fight is spreading beyond Syria — into Lebanon, Somalia, and rival regional blocs led by Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
• Neither side wants a war now: Israel is stretched thin across several fronts, and Turkey lacks the long-range strike power and air defenses to win one.

Outlook: A deliberate war is unlikely in the near term, but with no direct line between the two militaries, one mistake over Syria could trigger a real fight.