Traders waiting for a big Bitcoin pullback usually get a much smaller one, which is bad news for anyone sitting in cash hoping for a bargain.

• After a first strong move up, the typical worst dip in the following week is under 2%.
• Wait two weeks and the worst dip is still under 3%; three weeks, about 4%.
• Even after a full month, the typical worst drop is only about 5.5%.
• The dream of a 10% to 50% pullback happens only about one time in five.

Outlook: Buyers holding out for a deep discount will likely be left behind, since shallow dips are the norm after strength.

## Bitcoin Levels

• **Bias:** Bullish — dips after an initial upside move are shallow and short-lived.
• **Buy / accumulate:** Shallow pullbacks of roughly -1.7% (1 week), -2.8% (2 weeks), -3.9% (3 weeks) and -5.5% (4 weeks) from the move-up.
• **Invalidation:** A drop of 10-50%, which only occurs 17-20% of the time.