Chang Ya-chung's AI poll: Lee Szu-chuan leads Su Chiao-hui by 6.45 percentage points

Aug 26, 2026

The latest AI-based projection of the New Taipei mayoral race shows the KMT's Lee Szu-chuan slightly ahead of the DPP's Su Chiao-hui — an advantage for the blue camp, though not a solid one.

  • The AI Public Opinion and Data Research Center, newly established by Sun Yat-sen School president Chang Ya-chung, projects support at 53.23% for Lee Szu-chuan and 46.77% for Su Chiao-hui.
  • The method combines results from past elections, demographic statistics and public opinion polls, breaking the race down to the level of New Taipei's 1,032 villages, with village-by-village verification to follow after the election.
  • Lee Szu-chuan holds a wide lead in Wulai, Xindian, Yonghe, Zhonghe and Ruifang; Su Chiao-hui has the upper hand in Gongliao, Luzhou, Pinglin, Sanchong and Shiding.
  • The real deciding ground lies in Banqiao, Tucheng, Shulin, Yingge and Taishan — populous districts where the two are running nearly even.
  • Banqiao has 126 villages, making it one of the largest sources of votes, and the two candidates are currently almost tied there.

Outlook: Both sides' resources and campaigning are expected to concentrate on the swing areas around Banqiao.

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