Typhoon Sadel is falling apart as it nears Taiwan, which is good news for northern Taiwan and the outlying islands.

• The storm's eye has disappeared and its wind field has shrunk as conditions turn hostile.
• Forecasters keep nudging the track north, and the error cone no longer covers Taiwan's main island.
• A direct landfall now looks unlikely, with the chance of northern Taiwan being hit down below 40%.
• Keelung and the Taipei-Taoyuan area face the highest odds on the main island, while central and southern counties are under 20%.
• Lienchiang County in the outlying islands still faces the highest risk, but it has fallen from over 80% to around two-thirds.

Outlook: Sadel should keep weakening and slide north of Taiwan, sparing the island a direct hit unless the track shifts back south.