A senior Atlantic Council adviser argues Trump may soften US security commitments to Taiwan at a September meeting with Xi Jinping — bad news for Taipei, and a warning sign for other US allies in Asia.

• Harlan Ullman, writing in The Hill, predicts a "Taiwan two-step": Trump decides the US has no reason to fight if China invades.
• He blames part of the problem on Taiwan itself, saying it has the money to build a "porcupine defense" that would make invasion too costly, but hasn't done it.
• He points to Taiwan's legislature, where the KMT holds a narrow plurality and favors some form of accommodation with Beijing, as one reason that defense buildup has stalled.
• The botched US strikes on Iran, he argues, have pushed American public opposition to a war with China even higher.
• His suggested alternative: a Cold War-style declaration that US conventional and nuclear forces stand ready, making any attack on Taiwan a disaster for China.

Outlook: Attention now turns to the September Trump-Xi meeting, where any shift in US language on Taiwan would ripple through Seoul and Tokyo as well.