A grim read on where the world is heading: a three-way power struggle between the US, Russia and China, with America's judgment no longer trusted — bad for global stability, and bad for anyone counting on peaceful trade.

• The Iran war is called a mistake the US can't win, because Iran sees it as a fight for survival while for Washington it was optional.
• Iran's ability to choke the Strait of Hormuz gives it real leverage now, though that leverage fades as the world builds pipelines and moves off oil.
• The old rule against killing other countries' leaders has collapsed, and once everyone does it, peace deals become almost impossible to trust.
• Open global trade is retreating into blocs and friend-only supply chains, and countries are weaponizing each other's dependence — the dollar, oil chokepoints, sanctions.
• Defense spending worldwide has doubled in twenty years, a sign nobody expects things to calm down.

Outlook: The war likely ends only when Trump decides to declare victory and walk away, and the economic pain is expected to show up at the midterm elections.