Taiwan's stock market has bounced back hard from its July slump, but a wall of trapped buyers above the 46,000 level is expected to keep it stuck in a range through September — neutral for investors, and a reason to buy dips rather than chase.

• The 40,000 level now looks like a floor, but too many people bought above 46,000 and are waiting to break even, which will cap gains.
• A spike in US government bond yields — the 30-year hit its highest since 2007 — hammered tech stocks before the US Treasury calmed things by ramping up its bond buybacks.
• The US-Iran conflict keeps swinging oil prices; if oil stays high into the Fed's September meeting, a rate hike is back on the table.
• US midterm elections in November are another drag, since stocks there usually go soft in the two to three months beforehand.
• Margin borrowing is creeping back up after July's washout, which could choke the rebound.

Outlook: Choppy trading into the autumn, with AI chip supply chain names, advanced manufacturing suppliers, and beaten-down laggards flagged as the places to accumulate for a longer-term run at new highs in 2027.