Taiwan's market is holding up better than US chip stocks thanks to strong AI orders, but rising long-term government bond yields are the big risk hanging over everything.

• Taiwan's main index is grinding sideways at high levels and beating the Philadelphia chip index, because Taiwan makes the hardware for America's AI build-out and books the profit first.
• Export orders keep hitting record highs, so strong company results are the floor under the market.
• AI stocks have been jumping around, so old-economy and financial names are likely to hold the market up for another week until weak hands are shaken out.
• Four things to watch: whether US bond yields actually fall after Treasury buybacks, Fed chair Warsh's speech at the global central bank meeting, Nvidia's results Wednesday and its huge financing plan, and a falling dollar with gold up three weeks straight.

Outlook: If long-term bond yields in the US, Europe and Japan keep hitting new highs, a long-bond storm could spread worldwide — so buy cautiously.