Polling in the New Taipei mayoral race shows the Kuomintang's Li Si-chun only slightly ahead of the Democratic Progressive Party's Su Chiao-hui — a source of pressure for the blue camp and a sign that the green camp could still turn the contest around.

• Li Si-chun's support stands at roughly 39% and Su Chiao-hui's at about 37%, a gap of just two percentage points.
• Li Si-chun's trademark is that he "gets things done," but New Taipei has 29 administrative districts with widely differing local issues, and he has yet to convert his personal image into a sense that he is the only choice for the city.
• Asked who is best able to solve New Taipei's problems, the two are almost level, suggesting his record on public works has not yet fully translated into votes.
• Su Chiao-hui is backed by the local organisation of her father, Su Tseng-chang, and Tsai Ing-wen's appointment as chair of her campaign headquarters is a further boost to the green camp's base.
• A quarter of Taiwan People's Party supporters are still undecided, and whether the blue and white camps can consolidate their votes may determine the outcome.

Outlook: With three months to go until polling day, the result hinges on blue-white consolidation and swing voters, and Li Si-chun will need to canvass all 29 districts and put forward policies that break with old baggage.