Iran has been rebuilding its missiles and readying its forces during the 60-day truce, and both sides now look headed back to open war — bad news for oil shipping, US troops, and anyone hoping for a deal.

• Iran's hardline leaders handed the Revolutionary Guard more control of the army, ramped up missile and drone production, and rebuilt bombed bases faster than Israel expected.
• The buildup is defensive logic, not treachery: the US attacked twice during earlier peace talks, so Tehran assumed the truce was just time for Washington to prepare a bigger offensive.
• The Strait of Hormuz is now the whole fight — the US tried to route ships around Iran's chokehold near Oman, and Iran shot at those ships to keep its only real leverage.
• Trump is telling Iran to raise the white flag while threatening to bomb Oman, the very country brokering the talks, a sign of a war going badly rather than one being won.
• Most alarming: there are reported internal US discussions about using tactical nuclear weapons on Iran — the exact outcome the war was supposedly launched to prevent.

Outlook: With the memorandum expired and US forces massing in the region, a wider war looks more likely than a deal, with oil transit through Hormuz the first thing at risk.