Bitcoin has closed back above its 200-day average after more than six months below it — a rare signal that has been good news for buyers every previous time.

• This has only happened three times before: the lows of June 2015, April 2019, and January 2023.
• Each of those reclaims came right after a bear market bottom and led to a strong run up.
• One month after the signal, Bitcoin was typically up around 14%.
• Six months later, the typical gain was roughly 65%.
• The pattern suggests the recent downturn may already be over.

Outlook: If history repeats, Bitcoin grinds higher over the next few months rather than making new lows.

## Bitcoin Levels

• **Bias:** Bullish — the 200-day reclaim is treated as a bear market bottom signal.
• **Targets:** Median gain of about 14% one month out and about 64.5% six months out from the reclaim.