Buying when it feels worst has paid off across stocks and Bitcoin, and Bitcoin is sitting on that classic buy line right now — good news for patient long-term buyers.

• The simplest winning setup is buying an asset that has trended up for decades whenever it falls back to its 200-week average price.
• Across 78 such touches on the S&P 500, Nasdaq, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon and Bitcoin, the typical gain three years later was about 68%, positive more than three-quarters of the time.
• Waiting in cash for that perfect price is the trap — Apple went a full decade without touching the line, so the money sat idle.
• The better version: put a fixed amount in every week no matter what, then buy five times as much on the weeks price closes at or under that line, using new savings rather than money held back.
• Bitcoin is the only one of those six assets near the line today; the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are 40-50% above it.

Outlook: For anyone with a three-to-five year horizon and no leverage, current Bitcoin prices look like long-term value, though the line can stay broken for a year or more before it works.

## Bitcoin Levels

• **Bias:** Bullish long term, no short-term call.
• **Buy / accumulate:** At current prices, with Bitcoin resting on and slightly below its 200-week moving average; add five times the usual amount on any weekly close at or below that line.
• **Support:** The 200-week moving average itself — the December 2018 low wicked to $3,122 but never closed below it.
• **Invalidation:** None on price; the risk is time, as the 2022 break stayed below the line for 280 days and chopped around it for over a year, with an average accumulation price near $21,500 that later ran up about 446%.