On the eve of Taiwan's 2026 local elections, the race in Hsinchu County has turned around, with the KMT's Hsu Hsin-ying moving from behind into the lead — bad news for the DPP.

• In the latest poll, Hsu Hsin-ying edges out Cheng Chao-fang by 41.4% to 38.1%, giving the blue camp the upper hand in a head-to-head blue-green contest.
• Three weeks ago, in the same match-up, Cheng Chao-fang was still ahead by 9 percentage points — a swing of more than 13 points in a short space of time.
• If independent Chen Chien-hsien enters to form a three-way race, Hsu Hsin-ying still leads, with the split in votes proving even more damaging to Cheng Chao-fang.
• The Chung Lien tainted cooking oil scandal continues to escalate and is seen as a key factor shaking the DPP's base, with even Kaohsiung named as a possible upset.
• The blue camp regards Hsinchu County, Taitung, Changhua, Chiayi City and Yilan as swing constituencies too close to call.

Outlook: The strategic-voting effect in the final week before the election will be decisive in Hsinchu County, and if the tainted oil case keeps gaining traction, the DPP will face mounting pressure in several cities and counties.