A diesel shortage tied to the closed strait is squeezing Europe hard, and the warning is that it could spill into serious social unrest — bad news for European governments, drivers, and anyone hoping the Middle East conflict stays contained.

• Europe runs on trucks, so a diesel shortage hits everything, and the shortage there is worse than in the U.S.
• The expectation is anger, protests, and violence across Europe, with some governments possibly falling.
• Talks with Iran are dead — Trump says they're off, Iran says there are none and threatens European targets if pushed again.
• Israel bombed a Syrian airfield right after Turkish officers inspected it, putting a NATO member and Israel on a collision course.
• A Saudi-Turkish-Pakistani alignment is forming against Israel's regional ambitions, while Russia and China ship military and humanitarian supplies into Iran.

Outlook: Expect the diesel squeeze to bite deeper in Europe while the Turkey-Israel standoff becomes the next flashpoint — and possibly the excuse for the U.S. to step back from NATO.