A push to raise the federal minimum wage to $25 an hour is drawing warnings that it would wipe out millions of jobs, bad news for small businesses and entry-level workers.

• A conservative research group projects over 5 million jobs lost if the floor triples from $7.25 to $25 by 2031, with Texas, Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Tennessee hit hardest.
• Restaurants and hotels would take more than a third of the losses, and the plan also scraps the tip credit that covers over a million tipped workers.
• Supporters say one job should be enough to live on and point to research showing gradual increases barely dent employment.
• Big companies could actually gain: they can absorb the cost, while smaller rivals go under and their business rolls up to the giants.
• The last big push toward $15 sped up fast-food kiosks and automated kitchens, and AI now makes replacing low-wage work even easier.

Outlook: The federal minimum has been stuck at $7.25 since 2009, and a fight over raising it is likely to become a central affordability issue heading into the next election.