Taiwan's opposition alliance is fraying ahead of the 2026 local elections, which is bad news for the smaller Taiwan People's Party and a potential opening for the ruling DPP.

• The KMT is squeezing the TPP — nicknamed the "6% party" for its thin support — instead of splitting races with it.
• Talks on joint opposition candidates in key cities are going badly, raising the odds the two parties run against each other.
• A split opposition vote helps the DPP, which is showing fresh momentum in several counties and cities.
• The TPP risks being crushed between the two big parties and losing what local footholds it has.

Outlook: Expect more public fighting over candidate nominations in the coming weeks, with the DPP benefiting the longer it drags on.