Gold is pausing after a strong run, and one big bank thinks the next leg up takes it past $5,000 an ounce — good news for gold holders, less so for anyone hoping inflation is under control.

• Gold slipped slightly as traders cashed in profits following the prior day's jump.
• Morgan Stanley expects gold to top $5,000 an ounce in 2027, possibly sooner, because it sees the Fed leaving interest rates alone.
• Minutes from the Fed's July meeting came out sounding tougher on inflation, with some officials still open to raising rates.
• Rising oil prices are stoking inflation worries again, which cuts both ways for gold — it's a hedge, but higher rates make holding it less attractive.
• Traders now put the odds of the Fed sitting still in September at about two-thirds.

Outlook: Gold likely keeps chopping sideways near its highs until the Fed's next move becomes clearer.