Taiwan's Mainland Affairs Council assesses that the second Trump-Xi summit will take place as scheduled in September, but that relations between the two countries are stable on the surface while undercurrents run strong beneath — a neutral-to-tense signal for the Taiwan Strait situation.

• Since the May meeting, the US and China have entered a consolidation period marked by continual small manoeuvres and verbal sparring, with both sides accumulating bargaining chips ahead of the September talks.
• China's so-called special law-enforcement operations in the waters east of Taiwan have drawn objections from the United States as well as Britain, Germany and France, and could become a summit agenda item.
• On trade, the United States has reopened its Section 301 investigation and is targeting Chinese overcapacity; combined with AI and rare-earth controls, the two sides have made no major breakthroughs.
• A White House report released in August named China for using "shadow transshipment" through third countries to circumvent tariffs, implicating 40 countries, which are expected to keep their distance.
• Scholars assess that even if the summit goes ahead, substantive agreements will be limited, and its main value will be as material for both governments' publicity.

Outlook: The summit is expected to take place in late September, but with the national strength of the United States and China drawing ever closer, a meeting between the two heads of state is unlikely to reverse the broad drift of the relationship towards confrontation.