A long-term momentum signal on Bitcoin has just triggered, and historically it has only shown up once a market bottom was already behind us — a bullish read for holders.

• A two-week momentum crossover fired this week from a deeply oversold zone, paired with bullish divergence.
• Every past instance of this setup came after a major low was already set, sometimes well after.
• That points to the late-July / early-August area as the macro low for this cycle.
• The signal is a confirmation tool, not an early warning — it tends to lag the actual bottom, so chasing it late is the risk.

Outlook: If the pattern holds, the recent low stands and the trend leans higher from here.