A mass border rush into Spain's North African enclaves is being framed as payback for Spain's criticism of Israel over Gaza — bad for Spain, and a warning shot to any country that breaks ranks.

• Netanyahu had publicly warned Spain it would "pay a price" for defending Palestinians; the border crisis followed.
• Spain also refused to let the US use its bases during the Iran campaign and has clashed with Trump over NATO spending.
• Morocco, now a close military partner of Israel through the Abraham Accords, is the pressure point on Ceuta and Melilla.
• A Washington think tank paper and a Republican congressman both suddenly called the enclaves Moroccan territory within days of each other.
• Israeli far-right minister Ben Gvir openly mocked Pedro Sánchez over the border surge afterward.

Outlook: Expect more pressure on Spain over the enclaves, with Morocco as the lever and the territorial dispute now tied to Spain's stance on Gaza.