Taiwan's Changhua county — the biggest county outside the six special municipalities — is trending green ahead of November's local elections, a bad sign for the KMT in a long-held battleground.

• DPP candidate Chen Su-yueh polls at 36.4%, well ahead of KMT rival Wei Ping-cheng at 19.4%.
• The blue camp is split: former DPP member Chiu Chien-fu is running as an independent and pulls 12.7%.
• Wei has yet to lock down his own base — barely half of KMT supporters back him, and only a third of those who voted for the sitting KMT county chief in 2022 have moved to him.
• A third of voters say they back no party at all, and more than half of them are still undecided, leaving the race open.
• Turnout intent is high, with nearly 9 in 10 saying they will or probably will vote.

Outlook: Both party chairs are campaigning in Changhua this week, and the KMT's path back depends on unifying its split vote and winning over the 3 in 10 voters who have not picked a side.